World

The main--dare I say, the only--weapon in the macro bears' arsenal right now is the flattening yield curve. When the Fed hiked rates yesterday, the five-year Treasury yield rose to a higher level than the 10-year, so that portion of the curve inverted. The spread between two-year and 10-year yields also flattened, to as low as 0.19 points this morning, down from 0.85 points at the start of the year. Cue panic that the Fed is making a historic mistake by tightening policy--not just with yesterday's hike, but in their projections showing they expect to tighten six more times this year, once per meeting. The two-year/ten-year yield spread in particular has been a favorite leading indicator of recessions. It has pretty much always inverted before downturns, and rarely inverted otherwise (char...

Companies across the globe have been fleeing Russia as the country faces increasing sanctions due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns over the ramifications the crisis may have on the global economy. Major Japanese manufacturers have added their names to the ever growing list of businesses halting operations in Russia, but economists note that the direct negative impact on Japanese firms is likely to be limited even though resource supply chain woes could cause long-lasting headaches. “The ratio of business that Japanese firms do in Russia (to their whole overseas operations) remains quite small,” said Manabu Shimoyashiro, senior director of the Overseas Research Department in the Japan External Trade Organization. Since Russia is “not a major market” for them, the firms...

BEIJING: China's factory inflation in February eased to the slowest annual pace in eight months, but analysts expect a pick-up in the coming months from surging prices of global commodities including oil, challenging policy-making to support the economy. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8 per cent on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement on Wednesday (Mar 9), easing from 9.1 per cent growth in January but just higher than an 8.7 per cent rise in a Reuters poll. Many Chinese factories closed in the first half of February due to Lunar New Year festivities, putting a temporary leash on demand for raw materials. But the war in Ukraine that erupted late last month has since raised concerns of global supply disruptions, pushing commodity prices to decade-h...

:Australia's competition watchdog filed a lawsuit against Facebook owner Meta Platforms on Friday, alleging the social media giant failed to prevent scammers using its platform to promote fake ads featuring well-known people. The advertisements, which endorsed investment in cryptocurrency or money-making schemes, could have misled Facebook users into believing they were promoted by famous Australians, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) said. The lawsuit filed in the Federal Court also alleges Facebook "aided and abetted or was knowingly concerned in false or misleading conduct and representations by the advertisers," the ACCC said in a statement. "The essence of our case is that Meta is responsible for these ads that it publishes on its platform," ACCC Chair Rod Sim...

LAUSANNE, Switzerland : Commodities traders such as Trafigura and Vitol have helped keep Russia's oil flowing through its Baltic and Black Sea ports in March, when some Western firms started to snub the market, according to ship tracking, traders and shipping sources. Both Swiss-based trading houses have long-term deals with state-run Russian oil giant Rosneft to load crude under agreements struck before Moscow's invasion of Ukraine triggered a wave of Western sanctions this month. So far in March, the two companies combined have loaded 22 cargoes of Urals crude, equivalent to 2.32 million tonnes of oil or 16.7 million barrels, according to Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data and sources. They shipped 1.84 million tonnes in February and 1.80 million in January. The bulk of the oil the tw...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s unprecedented response represent a watershed in international relations, marking the formal end of the post-Cold War era and setting the stage for seismic geopolitical and geo-economic shifts. But one defining feature of international relations will remain: To paraphrase Thucydides, the strong will continue to do what they can and the weak will continue to suffer what they must. It is true that leaders and observers around the world often speak of strengthening or defending the “rules-based international order.” But that order was always more aspirational than real. Countries that possess military or economic might reserve the right not only to make and enforce the rules, but also to break them. It is when the rule-makers disagree that the gre...

A game with few consequences left plenty in the way of questions as Japan overcame a first-half scare to draw 1-1 with Vietnam in their final World Cup qualifier, less than eight months before the tournament is scheduled to kick off in Qatar. With qualification having already been secured in Thursday’s away win over Australia, head coach Hajime Moriyasu went to the reserves for his starting lineup, giving Sydney hero Kaoru Mitoma his first start and Celtic midfielder Reo Hatate his first senior appearance. But Japan’s XI failed to gel on the pitch and fell victim to a well-organized and highly motivated Vietnam side that pressured the home team’s goal for much of the first half, taking the lead in the 19th minute when Nguyen Thanh Binh headed a corner kick past veteran Samurai Blue goalk...

Undi18 co-founder Tharma Pillai said that after the implementation of the Bill, there was a race among political parties to field younger or new faces in the Johor and Melaka state polls. Undi18 is a Malaysian youth movement that advocated for the amendment of Article 119(1) of the Federal Constitution to reduce the minimum voting age. As an example, Mr Tharma pointed out that among BN’s slate of candidates for the Johor polls, 70 per cent of them were new faces. Five of the coalition’s candidates were from UMNO’s youth wing, all of whom won their contests. “Because of the large percentage of youth voters, there is recognition that you must prioritise and focus on the demands of this group. So, it has become a louder and more powerful political cohort in a way,” said Mr Tharma who was ...

NBA basketball returned to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV for the first time in nearly 18 months on Wednesday, after China blacklisted it following a team official’s support for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement. National broadcaster CCTV streamed the Los Angeles Clippers’ 121-115 victory over the Utah Jazz, to a mixed reception from Chinese basketball fans. China, the NBA’s largest overseas market by far, suspended broadcasts on CCTV after the Houston Rockets’ then-General Manager Daryl Morey tweeted in support of Hong Kong democracy protesters in 2019. Since then, CCTV has frozen out the league, but viewers have been able to watch games on online streaming platforms and CCTV aired Game 5 of the NBA Finals in October 2020. A CCTV spokesperson at that time called the decision a “norma...

To be sure, petrol retailers in Singapore do not use crude oil prices in their cost accounting and pricing decisions for pump petrol. The Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) prices – the wholesale price of refined oil published by markets research firm S&P Global Platts – is used instead. Other considerations that go into the pricing decisions of retailers include duties, the cost of storage, land and labour, as well as currency differences. There is also typically a “lag effect” given how pump prices are based on older inventories bought at either higher or lower prices depending on the market situation then. But the lag time between global oil price movements and what consumers are paying at the pump has been much shorter this time. “What is perhaps more unique about the current set of ev...